I got this post from my uncle and it gives one pause to think where we are headed as a county and a planet:
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo
paper worldwide. Within just a few years, their business model
disappeared and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot
of industries in the next 10 years - and most people won't see it coming. Did
you think in 1998 that 3
years later you would never
take pictures on paper film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law. So as with all exponential
technologies, it was a disappointment for a long time, before it became way
superior and got mainstream in only a few short years. It will now happen with
Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3D
printing, agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10
years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now
the biggest taxi company in the world. Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company
in the world, although they don't own any properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the
world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years
earlier than expected. In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because
of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done by
humans. So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers
in the future, only specialists will remain. Watson already helps nurses
diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a
pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In
2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.
Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public.
Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want
to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at
your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it,
you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our
kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car. It will change
the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform
former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car
accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 mi (100,000 km),
with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million mi (10
million km). That will save a million lives each year. Most car companies might
become bankrupt.
Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just
build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels. Many engineers from
Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies: will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance
will become 100 times cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.
Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you
commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful
neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be
less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will
become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential
curve for 30 years, but you can only now see the impact. Last year, more solar
energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents).
We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he
wants, for nearly no cost.
Health:
The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There will be companies who
will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek)
that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and
you breath into it. It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly
any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will
have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to
$400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times
faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes. Some
spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of
spare parts they used to have in the past. At the end of this year, new smart
phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and
print your perfect shoe at home. In China, they already 3D printed a complete
6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will
be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in
the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how
can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the
idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to
failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80%
of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs,
but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small
time.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in
3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working
all day on their fields. Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri
dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal
in 2018.
Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows.
Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who
will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than
meat. It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because
most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell
in which mood you’re in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your
facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's
being displayed when they’re telling the truth and when they’re not.
Bitcoin will become mainstream this year and might even become the
default reserve currency.
Longevity:
Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years
ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself
is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that one year increase per year.
So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.
Education: The cheapest smart phones
are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a
smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at school in
First World countries. We have already released our software in Indonesia and
will release it in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this Summer, because I see an
enormous potential. We will give the English app for free, so that children in
Africa can become fluent in English within half a year.
